Republican candidates struggling to attract independent and unaffiliated voters
Contact: Paul Bentz, 602-528-3684
PHOENIX (August 25, 2026) – The latest statewide survey from HighGround Public Affairs reveals that the Democratic nominees for statewide down ballot offices have taken the lead with six weeks remaining until early voting starts.
In the same survey that showed Governor Katie Hobbs with a fifteen-point advantage in the Governor’s race, the top of the Democratic ticket is also faring well with Adrian Fontes and Kris Mayes both holding nearly 8-point leads for Secretary of State (43.0% Fontes/35.3% Kolodin) and Attorney General (48.3% Mayes/40.3% Petersen) respectively.
Further down the ballot, races also show a slight benefit for the Democratic nominees with Nick Mansour leading for State Treasurer by nearly 3 points (41.8% Mansour/39.0% Norton) and Teresa Leyba Ruiz leading the Superintendent of Public Instruction race by 1 point (42.3% Leyba Ruiz/41.2% Yee). In both cases, the race is within the margin of error.
Across the board, Republican candidates are seeing a less solidified GOP base where they are earning between 70% and 76% support – leaking support to crossover voters and undecideds. However, the larger problem Republican candidates are facing is among PND voters (unaffiliated and independents) who are opting for the Democratic nominees by margins that span 10 to 30 points.
Secretary of State
In the race for Secretary of State, Adrian Fontes has an early lead over Alexander Kolodin by 7.7 points with significant advantages among independent voters, female voters, and younger voters. Kolodin holds an advantage among male respondents and a narrow lead among voters 65 and older.
Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Inc. said, “MAGA Republicans are on the wrong side of denying election results, eliminating vote by mail, and making it more difficult to vote. The Democratic advantage among unaffiliated voters is more than 20-points and it’s not likely to change any time soon when it comes to election issues.”
Attorney General
For Attorney General, Kris Mayes is leading Senate President Warren Petersen by 8 points with sizable support from the Democratic base as well as a 28-point advantage among unaffiliated voters. Petersen has a nearly five-point advantage among seniors and is performing best among Republicans gathering 76.2% of the GOP vote. He is, however, also losing more than 12-points of Republican support to Mayes.
“Midterms traditionally favor Republicans in the State of Arizona. However, the GOP candidates at the top of the ticket are seeing 10% or more of their own party voting for their Democratic opponents,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc., “The softness among Republicans narrows their traditional advantage and makes unaffiliated voters that much more important.”
State Treasurer
The gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates begins to narrow as we move further down the ballot. Traditionally, Arizona has seen Republicans regain their built-in registration and participation advantages as crossover votes dwindle and candidate awareness decreases.
Democratic candidate Nick Mansour holds a 2.8-point advantage over Republican Elijah Norton (41.8% Mansour/39.0% Norton) in the race for Arizona State Treasurer. Mansour has a 10-point lead among unaffiliated voters, but the advantage is somewhat mitigated by Norton’s nearly 7-point advantage among seniors.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
The race for Superintendent of Public Instruction is the closest among the races tested in HighGround’s survey with Teresa Leyba Ruiz holding a 1-point advantage over current State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (42.3% Leyba Ruiz/41.2% Yee). The single-point advantage makes this race a statistical dead heat.
“With the exception of the uncontested race for State Mine inspector, Yee was the highest vote-getting Republican four years ago. Her bid for SPI is bolstered with higher Republican support and advantages in both the 50-64 and 65 and older age groups where she likely has better name ID,” concluded Bentz, “At this point, she is the best bet for Republicans to avoid a shutout in the statewide down ballot offices.”
About the Survey
The N=400 live interview survey was conducted 8/15 through 8/18. The target population is likely Arizona 2026 General Election voters who have a history of voting in Arizona elections. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file maintained by HighGround. Election Data was collected from the Arizona Secretary of State and Arizona’s fifteen County Recorders.
Individuals were randomly selected to reflect quotas for likely midterm General Election Voters in Arizona. The poll was weighted to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP based on previous midterm election trends.
The sample frame includes voters with a valid landline and cell phone number. Voters without a valid home phone or cell phone were not contacted.
The statewide survey was sponsored by HighGround Public Affairs on a variety of election and policy issues facing the state. The survey was conducted in English.
The questions quoted in the release are listed verbatim. The survey questions not released are not reasonably expected to influence the response to the question included in this release. The margin of error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence interval and does not take into consideration design effect.
For more information regarding the study, contact Paul Bentz at 602-528-3684.
The HighGround team has built a reputation as the “go-to” pollster for reliable and accurate polling in the State of Arizona. HighGround and its team are seven-time winners of “Best Pollster/Best Polling Firm” by the Arizona Capitol Times, including 2026.