Latest Data Points Toward Potential Significant Shift
Contact: Paul Bentz, 602-528-3684
PHOENIX (October 13, 2026) – Two years after significant Republican gains in the Grand Canyon State, the latest forecast data shows the potential for a dramatic shift in Arizona politics. As Early ballots dropped, HighGround collected data from 400 Arizona voters between October 6-8 which shows the entire Republican ticket significantly underwater and losing independent voters as well as all of Maricopa County where 63% of Arizona voters reside.
“Unlike the ‘Blue Wave’ of 2018 which was driven by heightened Democratic enthusiasm that narrowed the partisan divide, this latest data can best be described as a ‘red undertow,’ so named by Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report,” said Chuck Coughlin, President and CEO of HighGround who paid for the survey. “Republicans are winning just 75% of their own base voters, while between 8 to 13 percent are crossing over to Democratic candidates.”
The latest data shows that Biggs currently has 70.6%, Kolodin with 72.5% and Petersen with 74.4%, Norton at 68.1% and Yee leading the group with 75%. “If this storm hits Arizona as currently forecasted, the results would be a devastating statewide wipeout for the GOP,” continued Coughlin.
Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy explained, “It is no wonder why we are seeing Republican spending in reliably red states and Presidential visits planned for places where the GOP typically dominates. The trends right now demonstrate that the Republican base either may not show up or are not being candid with interviewers about their GOP support. Either way, Republicans have a significant amount of work to do. We saw this trend in the primary where 200,000 fewer voters than forecast choose to participate. At this juncture, this trend seems to be continuing as early voting begins. We will see if the Republicans can close the gap over the next 3 weeks.”
The statewide survey shows double digit leads for the Democratic incumbents, with Hobbs holding a 17-point lead over Biggs, Fontes with a 12-point advantage over Kolodin and Mayes up by 15 points over Petersen. In the open seats for Treasurer and Superintendent of Public Instruction, Mansour and Leyba Ruiz are up 9 and 6 points respectively.
“As we all know, polling is a snapshot in time and the only polls that really matter happen on Election Day, but they are indicative of trends and moods we are all seeing at the National level as well. Voters’ anger over gas and food prices, tariffs and continued international conflict and promises of public executions are certainly creating a toxic environment for the President’s party moving forward,” said Coughlin. “While we believe these numbers will narrow and lower ballot races will tighten, I would say the incumbent races for Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General are in fairly safe seat territory barring a dramatic shift. We all should keep this in mind come Election Day when the President fires up his totally unproven narrative about election fraud – the only fraud going on here appears to be the President’s promises to end foreign wars and bring prices down.”
“If this trend hits Arizona as it is today, we could see historic shifts in representation at the Arizona State Capitol, where Democrats last controlled the Senate in 1990 and the House in 1966,” said Coughlin.
Governor
Hobbs now holds a nearly seventeen-point advantage (50.5% to 33.7%) bolstered by strong numbers among all age demographics and 30-plus-point lead among independent voters (58.0% Hobbs/20.5% Biggs). Most significantly, Hobbs is leading by over 10 points in 50–64-year-olds which have been a stronghold for Republicans with Trump winning this segment by 22 points and Lake winning it by 15 points in 2024.
“While it is rare in recent history for Democratic candidates in Arizona to win by double digits, it is not unprecedented,” explained Paul Bentz, “Incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano soundly defeated Republican Len Munsil by 62.6% to 35.4% in 2006 when Republicans held an 11-point participation advantage.”
Given that the races for State Legislature are positioned on the ballot between the Governor’s race and the remaining down ballot statewide races, it should be noted that while these large margins may narrow, the trend of supporting Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket may have an impact on several key legislative races as well.
Secretary of State
In the race for Secretary of State, Adrian Fontes has grown his lead over Alexander Kolodin to nearly 12 points holding on to significant advantages among independent voters and female voters as we have seen in previous research. Kolodin is more competitive among voters 50 and older but is now trailing slightly in those audiences. The bigger challenge for Kolodin is among younger voters where he is now at an over 30-point disadvantage among likely voters under the age of 40.
Attorney General
For Attorney General, Kris Mayes has grown her lead over Senate President Warren Petersen to 15 points. Petersen performs better than both Biggs and Kolodin among Republicans but has started to lose traction among voters 50 and older. While the race could narrow as those audiences trend back towards their default position of supporting Republicans for law enforcement positions, Mayes is better positioned compared to her narrow win in 2024.
State Treasurer
Democratic candidate Nick Mansour now holds a 9.2-point advantage over Republican Elijah Norton (44.5% Mansour/35.3% Norton) in the race for Arizona State Treasurer. Mansour’s lead among unaffiliated voters has grown from 10 points in August to more than 27 points in October. Norton is also suffering from lower GOP support at 68%.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
The race for Superintendent of Public Instruction remains closest among the races tested with Teresa Leyba Ruiz now holding a 6-point advantage over current State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (44.7% Leyba Ruiz/38.3% Yee).
Leyba Ruiz’s advantage is largely made up of unaffiliated support where she has gained 10 points since August. However, Yee is the only GOP candidate with an advantage among the 65 and older audience which will bode well for her if turnout trends continue downward.
Coughlin concluded, “Yee is earning the highest level of support among Republicans and has traditionally been the highest vote getter in past elections. Of the races we tested, Yee’s historic strength likely makes the Superintendent of Public Instruction race the closest for Republicans.”
About the Survey
The N=400 live interview survey was conducted 10/6 through 10/8. The target population is likely Arizona 2026 General Election voters who have a history of voting in Arizona elections. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file maintained by HighGround. Election Data was collected from the Arizona Secretary of State and Arizona’s fifteen County Recorders.
Individuals were randomly selected to reflect quotas for likely midterm General Election Voters in Arizona. The poll was weighted to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP based on previous midterm election trends.
The sample frame includes voters with a valid landline and cell phone number. Voters without a valid home phone or cellphone were not contacted. The statewide survey was sponsored by HighGround Public Affairs. The survey was conducted in English.
The questions quoted in the release are listed verbatim. The survey questions not released are not reasonably expected to influence the response to the question included in this release. The margin of error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence interval and does not take into consideration design effect. For more information regarding the study, contact Paul Bentz at 602-528-3684.
HighGround and its team are seven-time winners of “Best Pollster/Best Polling Firm” by the Arizona Capitol Times including 2026.