Biggs struggling with independent voters as GOP voters continue to show a lack of enthusiasm
Contact: Paul Bentz, 602-528-3684
PHOENIX (August 24, 2026) – Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs has opened a sizable lead over Republican nominee Andy Biggs in the race for Arizona Governor according to the latest statewide survey from HighGround Public Affairs. Hobbs now holds a fifteen-point advantage (49.5% to 34.3%) bolstered by strong numbers among female voters (56.7% Hobbs/28.8% Biggs) and independent voters (54.5% Hobbs/19.3% Biggs).
Despite a registration and turnout advantage for Republicans in Arizona, the lackluster turnout for the GOP in the Primary is carrying over to the General Election with a sizable 14% of Republican respondents remaining undecided in the Governor’s race and another nearly 12% choosing Hobbs. The result is Biggs is currently earning only 70% of the Republican vote contributing to his current gap of support.
“Despite his historic victory in the Primary Election, the Republican electorate has yet to solidify around Biggs for the General,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc., “At the end of the day, we expect that Republicans will find their way into the Biggs camp which will make the margin much closer. However, right now, Biggs is being forced to fight a two front battle – trying to solidify his Republican base while also trying to earn crossover support from independents. These two things run the risk of being at odds with each other.”
On the other hand, Hobbs is currently earning 93% among Democratic voters as well as over 54% of independent and unaffiliated voters. She is currently leading among all age demographics with sizable leads among younger voters as well as maintaining a narrow margin among 65 and older voters (45.7% Hobbs/43.1% Biggs).
“The early spending from Hobbs and her supporters has taken its toll on framing her opponent. These numbers indicate that she’s clearly winning the airtime battle,” explained Bentz, “Early voting is still 6 weeks away and things tend to tighten up as the time to vote draws closer. However, it will be a tall task to find a way to not only bolster waning Republican enthusiasm while also communicating with independent and unaffiliated voters about things they care about.”
Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Inc. concluded, “The apparent lack of Republican enthusiasm coupled with independent voters’ anger over affordability, immigration reform policies, and the war in Iran may be creating a toxic environment for Republicans seeking to hold onto authority. It feels a lot like 2010 in reverse.”
About the Survey
The N=400 live interview survey was conducted 8/15 through 8/18. The target population is likely Arizona 2026 General Election voters who have a history of voting in Arizona elections. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file maintained by HighGround. Election Data was collected from the Arizona Secretary of State and Arizona’s fifteen County Recorders.
Individuals were randomly selected to reflect quotas for likely midterm General Election Voters in Arizona. The poll was weighted to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP based on previous midterm election trends.
The sample frame includes voters with a valid landline and cell phone number. Voters without a valid home phone or cellphone were not contacted.
The statewide survey was sponsored by HighGround Public Affairs on a variety of election and policy issues facing the state. The survey was conducted in English.
The questions quoted in the release is listed verbatim. The survey questions not released are not reasonably expected to influence the response to the question included in this release. The margin of error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence interval and does not take into consideration design effect.
For more information regarding the study, contact Paul Bentz at 602-528-3684.
The HighGround team has built a reputation as the “go-to” pollster for reliable and accurate polling in the State of Arizona. HighGround and its team are seven-time winners of “Best Pollster/Best Polling Firm” by the Arizona Capitol Times, including 2026.