Likely voters oppose AZGOP effort to ban Arizona’s long-standing practice of vote by mail by nearly two to one margin
Contact: Paul Bentz (602) 528-3684
PHOENIX (April 5, 2022) – For nearly thirty years, the State of Arizona has successfully offered no-excuse absentee voting which is also often referred to as “early voting.” More than 70% of registered voters appear on Arizona’s so-called “Permanent Early Voting List” and more than 80% of voters chose to cast their vote via early ballot in the 2020 General Election.
Despite its immense popularity, the Arizona Republican Party recently filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of early voting – a move that is overwhelmingly opposed by the Arizona electorate. The latest statewide poll from HighGround Public Affairs reveals that 61.6% of likely voters oppose the move and only 32.2% support it.
“The Republican Party was the first organization in Arizona to encourage and adopt no excuse absentee voting in the early 1990’s. It was one of the keys to Governor Symington’s victory in 1994 over the very popular Democratic nominee, Eddie Basha. As the manager for Gov. Symington’s reelection campaign, I knew early voting was a key strategy in turning out the Republican vote. We did it so well that Symington even won Pima County in 1994! Early voting is popular because it works and it helps election officials tally our votes much more quickly,” said Chuck Coughlin, President and CEO of HighGround who funded the survey.
Q. The Arizona Republican Party has filed a lawsuit to end vote by mail (also known as early voting) in Arizona claiming that the only constitutional form of voting is in person at the polls on Election Day. Knowing just what you know right now, do you support or oppose eliminating early voting in Arizona?
“Our projection for the 2022 turnout is an approximate eight-point Republican advantage and have set our polling accordingly,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy. “With four out of every ten in the GOP in opposition to their own party’s effort to ban early voting, party officials continue to focus on issues which divide their own base. Statewide Republicans will struggle to win an election without a large portion of Independents let alone if they are losing members of their own party.”
Coughlin continued, “Republican narratives which continue to look back at the last election and support voter suppression efforts will only serve to make GOP prospects of victory in 2022 much narrower. For Republicans to succeed on Election Day in 2022, the GOP must be seen as working on issues that a vast majority of their own party support and win a plurality of unaffiliated voters.”
“This legislative session Republicans have a chance to pass record tax cuts, promote school choice, and significantly boost funding for K-12 education. Such accomplishments would leave Republicans in an unbelievably strong position to make significant electoral gains in the 2022 cycle. In this environment, anything less than top to bottom ticket success should be considered a failure. The next few months should tell the tale of the tape of the 2022 elections: Does the GOP help itself or continue down the path of becoming a minority party in Arizona? Barry Goldwater and John McCain are watching from above,” concluded Coughlin.
About the Survey
The N=400 survey was conducted among likely voters 3/26 through 3/27. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2022 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. No weighting has been applied. The sample was provided from the internal voter database maintained by HighGround.
The live interview survey of voters was conducted in English by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users. The statewide survey was sponsored by and conducted by HighGround Public Affairs on a variety of election and policy issues facing the state.
The question quoted in the release is listed verbatim. The survey questions not released are not reasonably expected to influence the response to the question included in this release. Voters without a valid home phone or cellphone were not contacted.
The partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP based on previous midterm election trends, including the uptick in Democratic participation in past two election cycles combined with expected increase in enthusiasm among Republicans in the Gubernatorial Election. The margin of error is ±4.9%. For more information regarding the study, contact Paul Bentz at 602-528-3684.
The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past dozen years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Paul Bentz is a three-time winner of “Best Pollster” by the Arizona Capitol Times.