As we said last week, now is the time when gaps typically close in the election cycle. Recent surveys may have had a variety of results, but they have all shown this trend. In the race for President and United States Senate in Arizona, we believe that the gaps have closed significantly. Just two weeks before early ballots drop, it appears that Carmona has closed the gap on Flake to three points, and President Obama has closed the gap on Romney to four points.
HighGround recently commissioned several questions on a Bob Moore statewide survey of likely voters conducted September 25th and 26th (N=500, Margin of error +-4%). Moore Information was our pollster during the 2010 gubernatorial cycle and they did a great job in providing swift and accurate results. Here is what we found:
Next, if the election for President was held today and the candidates were (RANDOMIZE 1-4), for whom would you vote?
46% Mitt Romney, Republican
42% Barack Obama, Democrat
3% Gary Johnson, Libertarian
1% Jill Stein, Green
7% Don’t know/refused
If the election for U.S. Senate was held today and the candidates were (RANDOMIZE 1-3), for whom would you vote?
43% Jeff Flake, Republican
40% Richard Carmona, Democrat
4% Marc Victor, Libertarian
11% Don’t know/refused
Demographics: Party Registration
Moore’s demographics appear to be right on the money. As we posted last week, any Arizona statewide survey that wants to reflect accurate results of the 2012 General Election should be around 41-44% Republican, 34-36% Democrat, 20-25% Independent & PND. In addition, the baseline number for voters 65 and older should be at least 25% of the electorate.
As we always say, polling is a snapshot in time, but one thing is for certain, no one is running away with victory in these races. In fact, both leads are within the margin. Now it becomes a question on which campaigns can grab the momentum in the next two weeks and who can close effectively.
Also, for those following the initiatives closely, it appears that Proposition 121, the “top-two” initiative, is under water. Here is the question we asked:
Now I want to ask you about Proposition 121, which will be on the ballot in November. Here is the ballot language:
A “yes” vote shall have the effect of replacing the current party primary election with a “top-two” primary election in which all voters, regardless of party affiliation, vote in a single, combined primary, and the top two vote-getters for each seat advance to the general election ballot. This “top-two” primary will not apply to the election of the U.S. President or to election in which no party affiliation appears on the ballot.
A “no” vote shall have the effect of keeping the current party primary election in which each recognized political party selects a candidate to appear on the general election ballot.
After hearing this will you vote “yes” to support or “no” to oppose Proposition 121? IF YES/NO: Is that definitely yes/no or probably yes/no
19% Definitely yes
17% Probably yes
37% Total yes
10% Don’t know
53% Total no
15% Probably no
38% Definitely no
The “top-two” initiative may have some compelling arguments, but it appears that voters aren’t hearing them. When voters are confused or do not have enough information, they typically vote no. With the no vote at 53%, it may be difficult for the initiative to recover.