GOP candidates make gains in traditional constituencies – continue to struggle among independent and female voters.
PHOENIX (October 27, 2026) – With one week left until the Midterm Election, Republicans continue to trail in Arizona but have made strides to close the enthusiasm gap according to the latest statewide survey from HighGround Public Affairs.
In the last two weeks, Republicans have gained more than 10 points of support among their base with GOP support growing from the low 70% range to now over 80% for all statewide candidates. At the same time, their support among voters ages 50 and over has also increased, allowing them to catch up and, in some cases, surpass their Democratic opponent among these age segments.
“Following lackluster support in two previous surveys, millions of dollars in late spending and a visit from the President appear to have rallied the faithful in Arizona behind the Republican nominees for statewide office,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy at HighGround. “They have solidified their base and gained ground among the older age segments who are performing well in early ballot returns. They have accomplished step one in making a comeback, but step two is likely much more difficult.”
As Election Day draws near, Katie Hobbs maintains a 12-point lead over Andy Biggs in the race for Governor, Fontes holds an 11-point lead over Kolodin for Secretary of State, and Mayes leads by 11 points over Petersen for Attorney General.
“The Democratic advantage at this point is made up by sizable support among independent and unaffiliated voters where each candidate at the top of the ticket is ahead by over 40 points. They are also ahead among female voters by over 15 points,” said Chuck Coughlin, President and CEO of HighGround who paid for the survey. “We have said all along that these races would narrow. However, to this point, the Republican ticket has offered very little that would change the mind of these two key constituencies as they make their final decision.”
The down ballot races have narrowed with Mansour now up by 6 points in the race for Treasurer and Leyba Ruiz ahead by 4 points for Superintendent of Public Instruction – within the margin of error. Republicans Norton and Yee are now both above 50% in the 50-64 age range and the 65 and older demographic which may be the difference in these lower information races.
Coughlin concluded, “The tenor of the closing campaigns is going to be very important. Historically, pre-Trump, it was a rule that every campaign closing narrative would be positive, that is not the case any longer in the Trump era. Negative campaigns suppress voter turnout and create a narrow path for Republican voter majorities to close the election gap even more with suppressive messaging. It is critically important that Democratic campaigns provide an aspirational narrative to give their lower propensity voters and independents a reason to vote. Positive narratives create momentum and the Democrats will need that to close this election cycle to maintain their momentum.”
Governor
Governor Katie Hobbs maintains a double-digit lead in her bid for re-election though her lead has fallen from 17 points down to 12 points (51.5% to 39.3%). While Hobbs maintains a solid lead among younger voters and has actually grown her lead among independent voters to nearly 50 points (67.0% Hobbs/18.2% Biggs), Biggs has made a comeback in other areas growing his GOP support from 70% to over 80% and regaining support among 50–64-year-olds where he now leads by 4 points. He still has work to do – Trump won this segment by 22 points and Lake won it by 15 points in 2024.
Secretary of State
In the race for Secretary of State, Adrian Fontes has generally maintained his lead over Alexander Kolodin – a slight decline from 12 points ahead to leading by 11 points in the latest survey. As previously mentioned, Fontes holds significant advantages among independent voters and female voters as we have seen in previous research. While he continues to trail among voters under the age of 49, Kolodin has gained a narrow lead among voters 50-64 and 65 and older where he is now ahead by two points in both categories.
Attorney General
Attorney General Kris Mayes maintains an 11-point lead over Senate President Warren Petersen. Petersen is the top performer among the Republican base, earning 85% support. As predicted, the race narrowed slightly as voters ages 50 and older trended back towards their default position of supporting Republicans for law enforcement positions, but Mayes more than 3 to 1 advantage among independent and unaffiliated voters is helping to mitigate that gap – keeping her in a comfortable margin.
State Treasurer
In the race for Arizona State Treasurer, Democratic candidate Nick Mansour’s advantage over Republican Elijah Norton fell from 9.2 points in previous polling down to 6.3 points (46.8% Mansour/40.5% Norton). Mansour’s lead among unaffiliated voters has nearly doubled from 27 points in early October to over 45 points in the latest survey. However, Norton is narrowing the gap with his improved GOP numbers and a 15-point advantage among voters 65 and older.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
The closest race for Republicans is the bid for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Teresa Leyba Ruiz’s advantage has fallen back within the margin of error over current State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (47% Leyba Ruiz/42.8% Yee). Leyba Ruiz sees the least amount of GOP crossover vote and is the only Democrat currently trailing in the 40–49-year-old age category making this race a toss-up heading into the final week of the election.
About the Survey
The N=400 live interview survey was conducted 10/21 through 10/25. The target population is likely Arizona 2026 General Election voters who have a history of voting in Arizona elections. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file maintained by HighGround. Election Data was collected from the Arizona Secretary of State and Arizona’s fifteen County Recorders.
Individuals were randomly selected to reflect quotas for likely midterm General Election Voters in Arizona. The poll was weighted to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The partisan advantage was set at +8% GOP based on previous midterm election trends.
The sample frame includes voters with a valid landline and cell phone number. Voters without a valid home phone or cellphone were not contacted. The statewide survey was sponsored by HighGround Public Affairs. The survey was conducted in English.
The questions quoted in the release are listed verbatim. The survey questions not released are not reasonably expected to influence the response to the question included in this release. The margin of error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence interval. For more information regarding the study, contact Paul Bentz at 602-528-3684.