Trump gains slight lead over Harris while Gallego continues strong advantage over Lake
PHOENIX (October 22, 2024) – With just two weeks until Election Day, former President Donald Trump’s upward trend in Arizona continues as he has now taken a narrow six-tenths of a point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest statewide survey from HighGround Public Affairs. Trump now holds an advantage of 46.8% to 46.2% – closing the gap and taking a slight lead since Arizona’s Primary Election in August.
The polling conducted on October 19-20th, also shows that Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) continues to hold a sizable margin over former TV newscaster Kari Lake. Following their debate, Gallego still maintains a 51.7% to 42.3% advantage over Lake.
Presidential Race
In the race for President, Trump has overcome a 2.2 point gap in late September polling and moved to a 0.6 point lead over Harris (46.8% to 46.2%) among likely voters. While Trump’s lead is well within the survey’s margin of error, the former President has made significant progress among Republican respondents by cutting the cross-over vote nearly in half as well as making gains among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. Harris maintains leads among independent and unaffiliated voters and has gained a 6 point advantage among likely voters over the age of 65.
Harris continues to earn support from a majority of female voters (51.4% Harris/42.8% Trump) while Trump holds more than a ten point lead among male voters (40.6% Harris/51.0% Trump).
“The attacks on Harris have taken their toll, making this race an absolute tossup. It’s clear that Trump is trending in these final two weeks – earning back some GOP support and even making headway among some Democrats,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc. “Based on initial early voting returns, Republican voters are enthused and returning their ballots at a much higher number than Democratic counterparts. Right now, we are not seeing the same Democratic enthusiasm that we saw two or four years ago. The hope for Harris likely lies in younger Democratic voters and unaffiliated voters who are currently lagging in their ballot returns.”
US Senate Race
In the race for the United States Senate, Congressman Ruben Gallego continues to hold a 9.4 point lead over Republican nominee Kari Lake and has surpassed the 50% mark (51.7% Gallego/42.3% Lake). Since the Primary Election, the gap has narrowed slightly from 11 points down to 9 points, but Lake remains significantly behind and is struggling with key demographics including female voters, independent and unaffiliated voters, and seniors.
Gallego continues to slightly outperform Harris among Democrats picking up 91.2% of the vote with nearly half of the Democratic crossover as the Presidential nominee. While Lake has made gains among GOP respondents, but still trails Trump by 4 points. Gallego has also grown his advantage among independent and unaffiliated voters and is now winning them by a 2 to 1 margin. Female likely voters are also favoring Gallego (56.2% Gallego/38.5% Lake) and Gallego has a narrow 0.5 point lead among males as well – a stark contrast to Trump’s advantage among men.
“As with all polling, we typically see races narrow as we get close to Election Day,” stated Bentz, “But this race is not closing the gap fast enough to be competitive. Trump’s gains are not spilling over to help Lake. Trump’s supporters remain loyal to him, but like we saw in 2022, it is not translating to down ballot MAGA candidates.”
Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Inc. concluded, “As we always say, candidates matter. Arizona’s swing voters are known to be very selective as they fill out their ballot. While there’s a chance that Trump may win the day in Arizona, his coattails appear to be very short.”
About the Survey
The N=400 live interview survey was conducted 10/19 through 10/20. The target population is likely Arizona 2024 General Election voters who have a history of voting in Arizona elections. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file maintained by HighGround. Election Data was collected from the Arizona Secretary of State and Arizona’s fifteen County Recorders.
Individuals were randomly selected to reflect quotas for likely General Election Voters in Arizona. The poll was weighted to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on previous Presidential election trends.
The sample frame includes voters with a valid landline and cell phone number. Voters without a valid home phone or cellphone were not contacted.
The statewide survey was sponsored by HighGround Public Affairs on a variety of election and policy issues facing the state. The survey was conducted in English.
The questions quoted in the release is listed verbatim. The survey questions not released are not reasonably expected to influence the response to the question included in this release. The margin of error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence interval and does not take into consideration design effect.
For more information regarding the study, contact Paul Bentz at 602-528-3684.
The HighGround team has built a reputation as the “go-to” pollster for reliable and accurate polling in the State of Arizona. HighGround and its team are five-time winners of “Best Pollster in Arizona” by the Arizona Capitol Times, most recently in June 2024.