New live-caller survey of likely Democratic primary voters shows Amish Shah significantly ahead of all competitors in Arizona’s First Congressional District.
Contact: Chuck Coughlin, 602-528-3684
PHOENIX (February 25, 2026) – A new live-caller survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona’s Congressional District 1 shows Dr. Amish Shah holding a commanding lead over all competitors. With fewer than 150 days remaining before the primary, Shah leads his nearest Democratic rival, Marlene Galan-Woods, by a 3-to-1 margin, while the remainder of the field captures less than 2% support apiece.
The survey was independently commissioned and paid for by HighGround Inc., a Phoenix-based political consulting and public affairs firm. The survey was conducted from February 21 – 23 and was not coordinated with or conducted on behalf of any candidate or campaign committee. The margin of error for the survey is ± 4.9.
“Shah’s substantial lead at this stage suggests that his Democratic opponents should reassess their campaigns and consider whether continuing is in the best interest of the party’s effort to flip the seat in November,” said Chuck Coughlin, President and CEO of HighGround Inc., “Shah won the primary two years ago and has held on to and potentially expanded the political base which delivered the primary victory to him last election. Even with 49% of respondents currently undecided, his opponents would need a major shift in the political landscape to reverse this outcome.”
Coughlin noted the challenges the Democratic nominee will face in the general election. “Given the registration and turnout advantages held by Republicans in the district, a successful Democratic candidate will need not only to mobilize the vast majority of Democratic voters but also persuade nearly 100,000 Independent voters, possibly even some Republicans, to flip the seat. Achieving this will require a highly coordinated and effective campaign.”
According to historical turnout in CD1, Republicans hold an 11-point participation advantage over Democrats (41% to 30%) in General Elections. Independent and unaffiliated voters make up the remaining 29% of likely voters which is why the district is considered one of the most competitive in the state.
“Barring an unforeseen crisis in the race, this primary is over for all constructive purposes. The Democrats need to decide if they are serious about flipping the seat. A well-funded Republican opponent is waiting to engage this fight in November, this race will be one to keep a close eye on,” concluded Coughlin.
Survey Toplines can be found here. Survey Presentation can be found here.
About the Survey
The N=400 live interview survey was conducted 2/21 through 2/23. The target population is likely Arizona 2026 Primary Election Voters living in CD1 who have a history of voting in Arizona primary elections. Respondents were randomly selected from the voter file maintained by HighGround. Election Data was collected from the Arizona Secretary of State and Arizona’s County Recorders. The margin of error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence interval. For more information regarding the study, contact Chuck Coughlin at 602-528-3684.
The HighGround team has built a reputation as the “go-to” pollster for reliable and accurate polling in the State of Arizona. HighGround and its team are five-time winners of “Best Pollster/Polling Firm” awards by the Arizona Capitol Times, most recently named Best Polling Firm in June 2025.