Harris holds slim lead over Trump within the margin while Gallego leads Lake by 11 in Arizona
Contact: Paul Bentz, 602-528-3684
PHOENIX (August 8, 2024) – Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to hit the campaign trail in Arizona on Friday with her newly named running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. When she does, the latest statewide survey from HighGround Public Affairs reveals that Harris will enter the Grand Canyon State with a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump.
The polling conducted statewide from July 31st through August 5th (directly following Arizona’s primary elections) also revealed Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) holds a much more comfortable margin over former TV newscaster Kari Lake.
Presidential Race
In the race for President, the survey revealed that Harris is starting with a slim lead – earning 44.4% of the vote compared to 41.6% of likely voters casting their support for Trump. The 2.8 point lead is within the survey’s margin of error. Harris’ lead is bolstered by 86.5% of the Democratic base, whereas Trump is earning 79.5% of the Republican base, a slippage that was also witnessed by other MAGA candidates in Arizona in 2022. Essential independent and unaffiliated voters are also initially breaking by about 7.2 points for Harris.
Harris earns support from a majority of female voters (51% Harris/36% Trump) while Trump holds a ten point lead among male voters (37.2% Harris/47.7% Trump). Harris is earning significant support among younger voters, while Trump’s largest strong hold is among voters ages 50-64. Both candidates are split evenly among Arizona’s incredibly important 65 and older demographic.
“Now that the primary is over, things are starting to come into focus. As the newly minted Presidential nominee, Vice President Harris is starting off with a narrow but notable lead,” said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Inc. “It’s a good start, but with the attacks already starting, we expect some rough patches ahead. For the past three cycles, Democrats have consistently performed better with the independent and unaffiliated voter audience. Harris continues that trend in our latest polling, but it will be up to her and her team to keep them. I would also expect that Republicans will make a significant push to capture the older voter demographic.”
US Senate Race
In the race for the United States Senate, Democratic nominee and current Congressman Ruben Gallego maintains a sizable lead over Republican nominee and former TV newscaster Kari Lake. Gallego has amassed a significant 11 point lead over Lake, nearly cresting the 50% mark (49.6% Gallego/38.6% Lake). These polling numbers follow a disappointing primary performance where Lake greatly underperformed in a primary she was expected to dominate.
Gallego is slightly outperforming Harris among Democrats picking up 88.2% of the vote. On the other hand, Lake is earning the support of 74.7% of Republican voters – underperforming by nearly five points compared to Trump. Gallego is also holding a nearly 18 point advantage among independent and unaffiliated voters which is a significant contributor to his current lead.
“It appears that Gallego has continued the Democratic trend that we have seen in the past few cycles of engaging independent and unaffiliated voters early. He has built a significant lead that will be difficult to overcome without a significant course correction by Lake,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc. “However, that’s not her only problem. She is earning less than 80% of her base vote, a critical segment she cannot afford to lose. The playbook she used in 2022 is not working in 2024.”
Female likely voters are also favoring Gallego (55.2% Gallego/34.1% Lake) and the pair remain tied among male voters at 43.5% apiece. At the moment, Gallego is also winning every age demographic with majority support among younger voters and significant pluralities among all age groups over 40.
Coughlin concluded, “Barring a significant alteration in the race, it looks extremely likely that Gallego will prevail in November. Republicans will be taking this race off the board nationally and focusing resources on other more competitive US Senate races like Montana and Ohio. As the acclaimed Phoenix Suns broadcaster Al McCoy used to say, ‘you can put this one in the deep freeze.’”
About the Survey
The N=500 survey was conducted among likely voters 7/31 through 8/5. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2024 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. No weighting has been applied. The sample was provided from the internal voter database maintained by HighGround.
The live interview survey of voters was conducted in English by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users. The statewide survey was sponsored by and conducted by HighGround Public Affairs on a variety of election and policy issues facing the state.
The question quoted in the release is listed verbatim. The survey questions not released are not reasonably expected to influence the response to the question included in this release. Voters without a valid home phone or cellphone were not contacted.
The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on previous Presidential election trends. The margin of error is ±4.38%. For more information regarding the study, contact Paul Bentz at 602-528-3684.
The HighGround team has built a reputation as the “go-to” pollster for reliable and accurate polling in the State of Arizona. HighGround and its team are five-time winners of “Best Pollster in Arizona” by the Arizona Capitol Times, most recently in June, 2024.