Senator Martha McSally lags Mark Kelly by more than 6 points – Race is on to define the Democratic challenger, who is still unknown to more than a third of the electorate.
PHOENIX (February 19, 2020) – Arizona’s rise as a battleground state will be on full display over the next few weeks with President Trump heading into town for a rally today and the DNC hosting a presidential debate in Phoenix next month. Not only does Arizona have the potential to role to play in determining the President of the United States, it may be the key to determining which party will control the United States Senate.
As President Trump heads into town today, he’ll be joined by Senator Martha McSally who is in need of a boost after falling behind her Democratic challenger. The latest survey from HighGround Public Affairs shows Senator Martha McSally trailing former astronaut Mark Kelly by 6.7 points.
Q. If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Martha McSally or Democrat Mark Kelly?
39.3% Martha McSally
46.0% Mark Kelly
2.5% Some other candidate
12.2% Don’t know, Refused
The N=400 survey was conducted among likely voters 2/7 through 2/9. It was a statewide live caller survey calling both landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is ±4.9%. The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on current turnout models and Presidential election trends.
McSally held a strong lead among Republican respondents with 78.4% of the vote. She also held commanding leads among very conservatives (86.8%) and somewhat conservative (80.0%). In addition, the state’s junior senator also held advantages in Rural Arizona (52.1%) and among males statewide (47.2%).
On the other hand, Kelly held strong leads among Democrats with 83.2% of the vote and a 50.6% vote in Pima County. He’s also earning strong support among the very liberal (92.7%) and somewhat liberal (82.6%) as well as advantages with 52.7% of the female vote and 52.8% of all voters 49 and younger.
However, the real difference lies in Kelly’s outstanding performance in a couple of essential constituencies. Kelly holds a 46.7% to 37.3% advantage in Maricopa County – the state’s most populated county and dominant media market. Kelly also leads 51.8% to 28.2% among independent and unaffiliated voters. Both of these audiences will be important as Arizona is expected to achieve near record turnout this November.
“Right now, not only does Mark Kelly have a commanding fundraising advantage, but he’s also holding a lead among critical swing voters including independent and unaffiliated voters as well as female voters who were the key to Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s success in 2018,” said Paul Bentz, Sr. Vice President of Research and Strategy at HighGround, Inc., “Polling is a snapshot in time and only time will tell if McSally’s new ads or the President’s visit can help stem the tide, but for now, Kelly’s campaign is trending in the right direction.”
Overall, McSally holds a slight advantage over Kelly in terms of approval rating. McSally’s approval rating is 43.3% including 74.5% approval among Republicans. Kelly’s overall approval rating is 42.0% with a 70.1% approval among Democrats. However, 34.5% of the electorate did not know enough about Kelly to give him a rating including 40% of Independent and unaffiliated votes.
Paul Bentz concluded, “There is still more than a third of the electorate who are not aware of Mr. Kelly. This is why campaigns matter. The next few months will be crucial for both sides as they race to define Kelly and what he stands for. I would guess that we will get our first good look at the GOP strategy tonight with the President on the stage. Time will tell which campaign will be more successful, but with Election Day still more than eight months away, it’s clear that Arizona is ready to be front and center on the national stage. This will be the race to watch.”
About the Survey
The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2020 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users. The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on previous election trends and expected Presidential Election turnout. The margin of error is ±4.9%.
Q. In general, would you say that the State of Arizona is heading in the right direction, or the wrong direction?
18.0% Definitely right direction
33.7% Probably right direction
12.7% Probably wrong direction
16.3% Definitely wrong direction
19.3% Don’t Know, Refused
Q. What do you consider to be the top issue facing the State of Arizona today? [Randomize]
35.3% Education
28.8% Immigration and Border Issues
13.3% Healthcare
6.5% Jobs and the Economy
3.0% State Budget
3.0% Taxes
2.5% Transportation
5.2% Other
2.4% Don’t Know, Refused
Q. If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Martha McSally or Democrat Mark Kelly?
39.3% Martha McSally
46.0% Mark Kelly
2.5% Some other candidate
12.2% Don’t know, Refused
The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.
