Electorate at a near even split 50.0% in favor to 47.0% opposed to Senate confirmation vote
Contact: Douglas Cole, 602-686-9712
PHOENIX (October 8, 2020) – The vast partisan divide and rural/urban split that dominate the national political landscape are on full display in Arizona when it comes to the potential confirmation of a new Supreme Court Justice. The latest survey from HighGround Public Affairs reveals that likely voters are evenly divided on whether the United States Senate should hold a confirmation vote prior to the election.
“If you want to see the nature of the division that pervades our state and our nation, look no further than this confirmation issue,” said Douglas Cole, HighGround’s Chief Operating Officer. “Battle lines have clearly been drawn not only along partisan lines, but also along regional lines as well.”
The more densely populated and more metropolitan areas of Maricopa County and Pima County leaned towards opposing the confirmation vote. On the other hand, Greater Arizona which encompasses the remainder of the state (and approximately a quarter of the electorate) overwhelmingly supported confirmation with 69.1% saying yes.
Cole said, “In a lot of ways, Arizona is a microcosm of the United States. The two metropolitan areas are acting a lot like our nation’s two coasts while Arizona’s suburban and rural areas playing the part of middle America. Issues like these speak to the changing demographics of Maricopa County as well as the growing disconnect between urban and rural communities.”
On the partisan line, the vast majority of Republican voters support confirmation while a similar portion of Democrats oppose it. On the Republican side, 95.5% of Trump voters and 92.5% of McSally supported confirmation. On the Democratic side, 91.3% of Biden voters and 87.5% of Kelly voters oppose it. Overall, independent and unaffiliated voters lean 51.7% yes to 46.6% no but there are even further splits among the PND/IND segments that make up that group.
“While it may be a homerun issue for their base voters, both parties should be warned that it’s a double-edged sword among independent and unaffiliated voters,” Cole concluded. “Support or opposition to confirmation will not have the desired effect among swing voters and only serves to divide them. With so few undecided voters on this issue, the electorate will be watching closely over these next 26 days.
About the Survey
The N=400 survey was conducted among likely voters 9/28 through 10/5. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2020 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.
The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users. The partisan advantage was set at +3% GOP based on previous election trends, including the uptick in Democratic participation in the August primary, and expected Presidential Election turnout. The margin of error is ±4.9%.
The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. HighGround Pollster Paul Bentz was named back to back winner of “Best Pollster” by the Arizona Capitol Times.