Biden leads 47% to 45% in latest statewide survey – nearly 30% of likely voters blame Trump for spread of coronavirus.
PHOENIX (May 26, 2020) – Despite low marks for handling of corona virus and high “blame” for its spread, President Trump only trails former Vice President Joe Biden by a slim two points – remaining within margin of error in HighGround’s latest statewide survey. In spite of trailing in Maricopa County (the state’s most populous county), Trump is keeping the race as dead heat through his 2 to 1 advantage in Rural Arizona and 8-point lead among voters 50 and older.
Q. If the election for President of the United States were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
45.3% Donald Trump
47.0% Joe Biden
4.3% Some other candidate
3.5% Don’t know, Refused
The N=400 survey was conducted among likely voters 5/18 through 5/22. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2020 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users. The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on previous election trends and expected Presidential Election turnout. The margin of error is ±4.9%.
Trump holds commanding lead among Republican respondents with 85.5%, very conservatives (96.4%) and somewhat conservative (82.7%). While he trails Maricopa County 39.6% to 51.8%, the President’s statewide strategy is reaping major rewards as he recovers most of the margin with a 2 to 1 advantage in Rural Arizona with 62.3% Trump to 28.6% Biden. Trump also holds a 50% to 42% advantage among voters 50 and older.
Meanwhile, in addition to a sizable lead in Maricopa County, Biden is earning support from 86.8% of Democrats, 61.5% of self-described moderates, 90.5% and 95.3% of the somewhat and very liberals respectively. Biden holds a 52% to 39% advantage of all voters 49 and younger and a 47% to 39% advantage among independent and unaffiliated voters.
“In the wake of the most challenging and arguably worst three months of his term, President Trump has shown that he can remain competitive in Arizona,” said Paul Bentz, Sr. Vice President of Research and Strategy at HighGround, Inc., “Despite several key swing constituencies not going in his favor and a deficit in Maricopa County, the state remains a ‘toss up’ because of his team’s laser focus on his key audiences. Plus, there is still an additional 4 to 8% of the electorate up for grabs. As this boils down to a turnout game, we will need to keep our eyes on voter registration and enthusiasm during the primary over the next few months.”
The dead heat is even more impressive in context of how the voters view the President’s handling of the corona virus. More than 38% rated his performance as failing with another 10% rating it as poor.
Q. On a scale of Excellent, Very Good, Ok, Poor, or Failing, how would you rate the job the following elected officials and organizations are doing in handling the Coronavirus:
President Donald Trump
25.3% Excellent
13.5% Very Good
10.5% Ok
10.5% Poor
38.5% Failing
1.8% Don’t know
When it comes to assigning blame for the Coronavirus, the competing narratives of Democrats blaming Trump and Republicans blaming China are taking hold in Arizona. When asked an open-ended question about who was to blame, nearly half of all respondents chose one those two options.
Q. If you blame anyone for the spread of the Coronavirus in the United States, who do you think is most to blame? [Open-Ended]
29.3% Trump
20.3% China
8.3% People
3.5% Democrats
4.3% Federal Government
7.7% Other
25.3% Don’t Know/No one
Paul Bentz concluded, “Clearly, the messaging from the attack ads are working which serve as a harbinger of the negative tone we are likely to endure through the rest of this election cycle. While the President does have vulnerability on the Coronavirus, Democratic candidates must take heed that it is not a silver bullet. The x factor may be the 25% of the electorate who don’t blame anyone or don’t know who to blame. That audience may be persuadable. Democrats must be mindful that the messaging surrounding China is working and gaining momentum. Biden cannot sit idly by as these attacks erode his support.”
About the Survey
HighGround has recently conducted a survey on several issues facing Arizona in light of the ever changing political landscape leading into the 2020 elections. Over the next week, the team will be sharing the results of those surveys covering several issues including the Presidential match up, United States Senate match up, COVID-19 response, the reopening of the state, legalization of marijuana, and other issues.
Q. In general, would you say that the State of Arizona is heading in the right direction, or the wrong direction? [Definitely/Probably]
32.0% Probably right direction
20.5% Definitely right direction
12.0% Probably wrong direction
17.5% Definitely wrong direction
18.0% Don’t Know, Refused
Q. Other than the coronavirus, what do you consider to be the top issue facing the State of Arizona today? [Randomize]
27.5% Education
24.5% Immigration and Border Issues
22.5% Jobs and the Economy
12.0% Healthcare
3.3% Other
2.8% State Budget
2.0% Taxes
1.3% Transportation
4.3% Don’t Know, Refused
Q. If the election for President of the United States were held today, would you vote for[Rotate] Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
45.3% Donald Trump
47.0% Joe Biden
4.3% Some other candidate
3.5% Don’t know, Refused
The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.
Survey Demographics
